Energy markets are so damn fickle
And none more so than natural gas
Member discussion: Energy markets are so damn fickle
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The slow grind higher
The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.
The Hidden Ceiling
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
Crossing the Hormuz chasm
The fragile bridge back to molecular normality is fraying
The post-Hormuz cliff edge
Prolonged closure jacks up near-term volatility, and sets the stage for an abrupt reversal: macroeconomic shock + demand destruction + new LNG supply wave