The shape of change: Incipient megatrends point to multiverse of intertwined energy transitions
Energy transition forecasts depict competing market forces melding with chaotic socioeconomic factors. Hard conclusions are scarce but volatility is a given, so agility will prove key to survival
The energy transition has barely begun, and its ultimate destination is today unknowable. But several authoritative reports* released recently by the likes of BP, DNV GL and Morgan Stanley offer insights into the forces driving the overall direction of travel. Long-term forecasts and scenario modelling do not lend themselves to concrete conclusions—rather, they tend to offer semi-speculative perspectives into how things might pan out under various contrived circumstances and assumptions. This article seeks to synthesise a few of the core narratives, with added context and discussion.
It is hard to overstate the sheer complexity of the energy transition, the myriad factors at play, how they interact, and the scope for major exogenous wild cards to derail even the most robust predictions. Think macroeconomics, deglobalisation, trade wars, demographics, (geo)politics and climate policy, all of which are evolving during a pandemic. And then there is the fallout from climate change itself.