Deep Dives
American voters delivered a sharp rebuke to data centres in the midterms. Can the anti-AI movement shield US LNG exports from rising public anger over energy bills – and if so, for how long?
Chart Deck
Eight weeks before Democrats take Congress, Trump has nothing left to lose. The fragile recovery in Hormuz LNG transits hangs in the balance, alongside so much else.
Interactive data model
Dutch TTF fell from €104 to €84 in five days either side of the seismic US midterm elections. Examine the events that triggered the selloff in our new interactive data model
Illegal, uncommercial, and morally bankrupt: Kushner’s tone-deaf pitch for Europe to restart Russian pipeline flows is dead on arrival
Europe’s 2022 gas grab taught Pakistan that long-term contracts do not guarantee molecules. Consumers answered blackouts and price spikes with 50 GW of unplanned solar. The result is an energy paradox: Pakistan is short of LNG today, but long on contracted supply to 2030.
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
How Europe’s response to the Hormuz crisis is blunting the very tools it needs to escape import dependency
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As TTF touches €100 per MWh, US LNG profits in Europe swell to $100 million on every cargo. Déjà vu, 2022?
EU leaders worry about growing dependence on US LNG, and Canada offers an alternative. But European utilities buying Canadian LNG will likely send it to Asia while US gas supplies Europe. That arrangement has value, but needs an honest political sales pitch.
Illegal, uncommercial, and morally bankrupt: Kushner’s tone-deaf pitch for Europe to restart Russian pipeline flows is dead on arrival
Modelling by Europe’s gas network operators implies Ukraine would send almost 5 Bcm westward in a harsh winter, even if that means leaving one tenth of domestic demand unmet
Rising power demand, slow nuclear restarts and 10 GW of auction-backed gas plants could halt the fall in Japan’s LNG imports, argues Japan NRG.
Investment funds spent six weeks selling hard into a rally that lifted TTF to €80/MWh. The supply risk is real, and ENTSOG’s winter outlook quietly agrees
EU delays methane regulation and urges gas demand restraint, as Germany orders SEFE to fill storages. But humiliating climbdowns cannot protect Europe this winter
Washington says Iran has lost control of Hormuz. Iran says it struck tankers on its blacklist. More ships are moving, but on whose terms?
TTF has swallowed more of the Hormuz closure risk. Beneath the latest peace sell-off, funds have banked profits and made room to buy again.
GASTECH 2026 REFLECTIONS: War shifts US strategy from hard sell to soft power, while Qatar goes on the defensive
And human vs robot dance-off
Hedge funds cash in as winter scarcity fears ignite EU gas market
