Deep Dives
Storage without a signal: the new political economy of Europe’s gas buffer
Deep Dives
Shell’s 2026 Outlook leans harder than ever on stratospheric Asian demand to justify a new wave of LNG investment. But post-Hormuz, the data and policy responses all lean the other way.
Guest post
Europe’s energy dependency has a new address. The continent has made a Faustian bargain with US LNG it doesn’t need.
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.
How Europe’s response to the Hormuz crisis is blunting the very tools it needs to escape import dependency
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Iran holds the valve, but it is worth less every time it turns... so Tehran is reaching for the gun.
Markets have priced the US–Iran ceasefire as a fully-fledged peace deal. The 60-day clock, and our models, suggest otherwise.
“This is a historic capitulation that will define the structure of global power for the next hundred years.”
Eurogas wants EU-wide storage targets to expire in 2027. GIE wants them to continue. Gasunie wants a strategic reserve. Brussels warns that botched intervention is a cure worse than the disease. They cannot all be right.
The US says the war is over and Hormuz is open. Energy markets are desperate to agree. Here’s what we know, what we don’t, and why the next two months will be more dangerous than headlines suggest.
Credulous energy markets have stopped pricing Iran, and started pricing Trump’s presidential word salads instead. This cannot end well.
The hard risk budget cap keeping TTF below €50 has lifted. What remains is softer, stranger and harder to trade: a market with room to rally, but no-one willing to push through.
But intervention is unnecessary, says Commission’s Gas Market Task Force
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
Atlantic LNG is heading east. EU storage refill is falling behind. And TTF keeps stalling below €50/MWh. This week’s Chart Deck explains why this apparent equilibrium is as soft as melting butter.
🎧 The looming macroeconomic shock, ballooning winter risk for EU gas markets, demand destruction & post-Hormuz narrative whipsaw
The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.
