The Pain Factor

🎧 Why markets anticipate a long Hormuz closure

Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation

Gas and LNG prices surge, as the storage-speculation nexus lights up along the forward curve

Strategic shock in the Middle East

Iran, the Gulf, and the crisis of regional order

War in Iran convulses energy markets

Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.

War profits, quantified

As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters and traders stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall

Iran: US Energy Dominance laid bare

Trump’s war of choice is a bonanza for US LNG exporters, and a catastrophe for everyone else

The storage-speculation nexus: revisited

Our revamped Chart Deck reveals hedge funds are again positioned to capitalise on Europe’s daunting gas storage refilling challenge

Dwindling EU gas stocks amplify Hormuz risk premium

Without a deep winter buffer, the European gas market is vulnerable to exaggerated price moves

AI data centres: quantifying the gas burn

How much natural gas will America’s AI boom really need? Our new Constraint Model puts numbers to the narratives

Cold shoulder

Too much LNG, not enough comfort

The cost of volatility

Who pays when risk management itself becomes riskier and more expensive?

Hormuz on the brink?

Gunboat diplomacy, commodity shocks, and the price of escalation