Hot take
Illegal, uncommercial, and morally bankrupt: Kushner’s tone-deaf pitch for Europe to restart Russian pipeline flows is dead on arrival
Chart Deck
Modelling by Europe’s gas network operators implies Ukraine would send almost 5 Bcm westward in a harsh winter, even if that means leaving one tenth of domestic demand unmet
Deep Dives
Rising power demand, slow nuclear restarts and 10 GW of auction-backed gas plants could halt the fall in Japan’s LNG imports, argues Japan NRG.
Europe’s 2022 gas grab taught Pakistan that long-term contracts do not guarantee molecules. Consumers answered blackouts and price spikes with 50 GW of unplanned solar. The result is an energy paradox: Pakistan is short of LNG today, but long on contracted supply to 2030.
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.
How Europe’s response to the Hormuz crisis is blunting the very tools it needs to escape import dependency
Get free AI-powered daily gas and LNG market updates from Energy Flux
Fiercely independent energy market analysis
Investment funds spent six weeks selling hard into a rally that lifted TTF to €80/MWh. The supply risk is real, and ENTSOG’s winter outlook quietly agrees
EU delays methane regulation and urges gas demand restraint, as Germany orders SEFE to fill storages. But humiliating climbdowns cannot protect Europe this winter
Washington says Iran has lost control of Hormuz. Iran says it struck tankers on its blacklist. More ships are moving, but on whose terms?
TTF has swallowed more of the Hormuz closure risk. Beneath the latest peace sell-off, funds have banked profits and made room to buy again.
GASTECH 2026 REFLECTIONS: War shifts US strategy from hard sell to soft power, while Qatar goes on the defensive
And human vs robot dance-off
Hedge funds cash in as winter scarcity fears ignite EU gas market
How options work, how they appear in fund positioning, and what they add to Energy Flux’s risk models.
Our new interactive data model reveals how bad things could get in the EU gas market this winter, and what must go right to avoid disaster
Bringing fresh perspective to the TTF Value-at-Risk analytical model
European gas is trading in the fleeting umbra of an eerie calm. Eclipses always end — and this one ends in a searing winter burn
Attempts to break the US-Iran stalemate are raising the risk of conflict sprawling sideways into dimensions the market has not yet priced
