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Jul 13, 2023Liked by Seb Kennedy

no mention of germany's foolishness in shutting down cost-effective, no emission nuclear in favor of burning lignite? more nuclear would reduce the need for energy imports, not to mention the environmental benefit of shutting in lignite.

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the numbers shown assume a "general" basket of consumers, where the cut in demand of 17% was horizontal across the sectors/society. in fact, it was the whole industrial (mostly german) sector that shutdown to 100%. or thereabouts..... saying that additional efficiencies are needed is just a simple button-push solution. in reality, next cuts have to be done by final consumers (old retired lady, no more heaters next winter, for ukraine and the climate and whatnot), or by destroying another whole sector. hmmm, force closing half of farm businesses in the second biggest food exporter country comes to mind.... we all need to thank dutch farmers to help us save on the gas imports..... :D

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Super oversimplified review.

TTF is an important benchmark, but many European gas markets are not linked to TTF and many gas consumers do not pay TTF-linked prices even on TTF market. Total gas value calculations based on “yearly average” TTF multiplied by total annual consumption are not fully correct because they do not take in account the fact that TTF was sky-high during May-October when physical gas consumption was minimal and traders & utilities injected the gas to underground storages with proper hedging of coming winter months, while maximum physical consumption during November-April (what final users paid for) was at much lower prices.

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