Sign in Subscribe

Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model

An interactive chokepoint closure scenario engine, supported by a global LNG project tracker and user override layer

Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model
Image: An illustrative example of the model output

The Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model is a premium interactive scenario tool built by Energy Flux to help readers quantify how the Iran war, Strait of Hormuz disruption, damaged Qatari LNG capacity and the global wave of new LNG projects could reshape supply balances over time.

Adjust key assumptions such as Hormuz reopening timelines, flow restoration rates, Qatar's LNG output recovery, global LNG project start dates and ramp-up speeds – and then track the impact on lost supply, replacement capacity and cumulative market balances.

For more background on the model and a discussion of the base case outputs, see this Deep Dive post (free to read, no paywall):

War vs. Glut: The Great LNG Reckoning
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much?
💥 Energy Flux 💥Seb Kennedy

And here is a YouTube tutorial that explains in more detail how to use the model:

The model itself is available only to paid, logged-in subscribers on the Deep Dive and Premium subscription tiers 👇

Subscribe now to unlock the full model

Cut through one of the most consequential periods of uncertainty the LNG market has ever faced, using a framework you can interrogate, stress-test and adapt as events unfold.

Upgrade for instant access 🗝️