Deep Dives
Asia’s LNG demand: reality check
Shell’s 2026 Outlook leans harder than ever on stratospheric Asian demand to justify a new wave of LNG investment. But post-Hormuz, the data and policy responses all lean the other way.
Deep Dives
One-off data models, long-form research and off-diary investigations into under-reported themes across gas, LNG and the broader energy transition. Deep Dives go beyond the weekly news cycle to interrogate the structural forces shaping markets — from geopolitical supply chain risk and policy architecture to emerging trade patterns and energy security dynamics. Available to subscribers on the Deep Dives and Premium subscription tiers. Latest issues below 👇
Deep Dives
Quantum transits
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
Deep Dives
The Hidden Ceiling
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
Data model
Update to the Hormuz LNG supply model
Quick re-opening, or prolonged disruption? Model how Middle East diplomacy and conflict impact fast-changing global LNG supply balances, in our improved scenario engine.
Deep Dives
War vs. Glut: The Great LNG Reckoning
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.
Deep Dives
Easter Escalation
Iran war spirals, Hormuz stays shut to LNG, and gas markets still aren’t paying attention
Deep Dives
Israel takes energy warfare to the next level
Strike on Iran’s giant South Pars gas field goes beyond military escalation. This is a structural supply shock with cascading consequences for oil, condensate, LNG and power that energy markets have barely begun to price.
Deep Dives
Strategic shock in the Middle East
Iran, the Gulf, and the crisis of regional order
Deep Dives
War profits, quantified
As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters and traders stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall
Deep Dives
AI data centres: quantifying the gas burn
How much natural gas will America’s AI boom really need? Our new Constraint Model puts numbers to the narratives
Deep Dives
Hormuz on the brink?
Gunboat diplomacy, commodity shocks, and the price of escalation
Deep Dives
Venezuela’s Gas: The World’s Most Expensive Bonfire
As the world fixates on oil, Venezuela burns $1.4bn of gas — while sitting on an untouched methane empire that could redraw regional power