The TTF Risk Spine takes the value-at-risk carried by investment funds’ net position in ICE Endex TTF futures and splits it exactly into the only three things that can move it: how big the book is, what natural gas costs, and how much the market is moving.

Each week’s reading is stated against a fixed “normal week” and the P90 ceiling — the level only one week in ten has exceeded — so you can see at a glance whether risk rose because funds added length or because the market got rougher underneath them.

Every bar, flag and figure is regenerated from the latest ESMA/ICE Commitments of Traders report, with history back to 2019.

The model is updated every week and is available exclusively to paid subscribers on the Chart Deck and Premium subscription tiers. For instant access, join hundreds of subscribers and unlock the entire paywalled archive.