Arb to nowhere
CHART DECK: Moribund European gas market resurrects narrow Asian LNG premium
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The European gas market is stagnant. Prices are locked in a narrow range, suppressed by ample LNG supply and adequate storage.
But beneath the calm, two signals warrant attention: a marginal profit for sending US LNG to Asia has re-appeared, and a growing number of vessels are being used for floating storage.
These developments are by no means concrete trading opportunities. Instead, they reveal the underlying tensions in a market caught between a clear fundamental surplus and the persistent risk of a winter price spike.
This contradictory dynamic is captured in the Energy Flux TTF Risk Model, which is emitting a knife-edge signal that the forward curve is under-pricing winter risk.
In today’s Chart Deck:
- Why the returning Asian premium signals European weakness, not strength
- What the rise in floating storage says about trader expectations
- How untimely fund short positions clash with physical market bets
- Why soft oil prices are suppressing Asian LNG procurement
- The key factors that will determine if, when and how the stalemate breaks
- How the TTF Risk Model and Sentiment Tracker reconcile market tensions
- PLUS: Full datavis gallery of global LNG supply-demand balances, with regional breakdowns
💥 Article stats: 1,900 words, 12-min reading time, 30 charts & graphs
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