The shock absorber cracks
For 55 days, the war-shocked global LNG market has been balanced by Asian state buyers going without. One just said, enough is enough.
Latest
Groundhog Strait
🎧 US-Iran ceasefire extended, Hormuz still closed to LNG. Could the Strait dominate the US midterms? We created three new LNG supply scenarios to find out.
A market at war with itself
Does the mispricing thesis still hold water? Either the data is wrong, or the market is.
Update to the Hormuz LNG supply model
Quick re-opening, or prolonged disruption? Model how Middle East diplomacy and conflict impact fast-changing global LNG supply balances, in our improved scenario engine.
War vs. Glut: The Great LNG Reckoning
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.
America’s Suez moment
Trump’s hollow ‘victory’ is Iran’s greatest triumph — and a rupture with the old energy order
Easter Escalation
Iran war spirals, Hormuz stays shut to LNG, and gas markets still aren’t paying attention
Weaponising the fog of war
Markets can’t price what they can’t see. And right now, nobody can see anything.
Armageddon deferred?
🚨 EMERGENCY POD 🎧 Deciphering Trump's latest Iran TACO, and why the future of Middle East oil and LNG exports hinges on regime change in Tehran
The Great Gas Risk Mispricing
Markets are failing to reflect compounding supply shortages and Iran conflict escalation risk
Lies, damned AIs, and oil prices
Algorithmic execution has created the perfect insider-trading machine
The Middle East energy war is spiralling out of control
🚨 EMERGENCY POD 🎧 Deciphering the wide-ranging implications of unprecedented strikes on energy installations in Iran and Qatar, and the prospect of uncontrolled military escalation
Deep Dives
Israel takes energy warfare to the next level
Strike on Iran’s giant South Pars gas field goes beyond military escalation. This is a structural supply shock with cascading consequences for oil, condensate, LNG and power that energy markets have barely begun to price.
Hot take
The Price of Vassalage
How Europe’s response to the Hormuz crisis is blunting the very tools it needs to escape import dependency
The Energy Flux Podcast
The Pain Factor
🎧 Why markets anticipate a long Hormuz closure
Chart Deck
Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation
Gas and LNG prices surge, as the storage-speculation nexus lights up along the forward curve
Deep Dives
Strategic shock in the Middle East
Iran, the Gulf, and the crisis of regional order
Chart Deck
War in Iran convulses energy markets
Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.
Deep Dives
War profits, quantified
As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters and traders stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall
Hot take
Iran: US Energy Dominance laid bare
Trump’s war of choice is a bonanza for US LNG exporters, and a catastrophe for everyone else
Chart Deck
The storage-speculation nexus: revisited
Our revamped Chart Deck reveals hedge funds are again positioned to capitalise on Europe’s daunting gas storage refilling challenge
Chart Deck
Dwindling EU gas stocks amplify Hormuz risk premium
Without a deep winter buffer, the European gas market is vulnerable to exaggerated price moves
Deep Dives
AI data centres: quantifying the gas burn
How much natural gas will America’s AI boom really need? Our new Constraint Model puts numbers to the narratives
Chart Deck
Cold shoulder
Too much LNG, not enough comfort