Japan’s LNG love story is not over yet
Rising power demand, slow nuclear restarts and 10 GW of auction-backed gas plants could halt the fall in Japan’s LNG imports, argues Japan NRG.
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This ain’t no bubble
Investment funds spent six weeks selling hard into a rally that lifted TTF to €80/MWh. The supply risk is real, and ENTSOG’s winter outlook quietly agrees
Panic and capitulation won’t save Europe
EU delays methane regulation and urges gas demand restraint, as Germany orders SEFE to fill storages. But humiliating climbdowns cannot protect Europe this winter
Deciphering the Hormuz narrative war
Washington says Iran has lost control of Hormuz. Iran says it struck tankers on its blacklist. More ships are moving, but on whose terms?
Halfway to reality
TTF has swallowed more of the Hormuz closure risk. Beneath the latest peace sell-off, funds have banked profits and made room to buy again.
America’s accidental heist of the global LNG business
GASTECH 2026 REFLECTIONS: War shifts US strategy from hard sell to soft power, while Qatar goes on the defensive
Gastech 2026: LNG hype vs reality
And human vs robot dance-off
Europe’s gold-plated energy crisis
Hedge funds cash in as winter scarcity fears ignite EU gas market
The TTF options paradox, explained
How options work, how they appear in fund positioning, and what they add to Energy Flux’s risk models.
Europe rolls the dice on winter gas
Our new interactive data model reveals how bad things could get in the EU gas market this winter, and what must go right to avoid disaster
Interactive 3D chart experiment
Bringing fresh perspective to the TTF Value-at-Risk analytical model
Total eclipse of the market
European gas is trading in the fleeting umbra of an eerie calm. Eclipses always end — and this one ends in a searing winter burn
Chart Deck
Unintended consequences
Attempts to break the US-Iran stalemate are raising the risk of conflict sprawling sideways into dimensions the market has not yet priced
Chart Deck
TTF to the moon?
EU gas price surges past €60 per MWh. But is the top already in?
Deep Dives
How the sun rewrote Pakistan’s LNG strategy
Europe’s 2022 gas grab taught Pakistan that long-term contracts do not guarantee molecules. Consumers answered blackouts and price spikes with 50 GW of unplanned solar. The result is an energy paradox: Pakistan is short of LNG today, but long on contracted supply to 2030.
Chart Deck
The Hormuz clown show gets serious
Diplomacy has taken the back seat in the clown car. Markets have stopped laughing and started buying
Chart Deck
Will the €50 ceiling hold?
“After four months of paralysis, the relief is palpable. It may also be misleading. And it is almost certainly temporary.” – Energy Flux, 26 June 2026 Well, that didn’t last long. Barely three weeks into a supposed two-month ceasefire, US missiles and Iranian drones are criss-crossing the Persian
Deep Dives
The Spread is Dead
Storage without a signal: the new political economy of Europe’s gas buffer
Deep Dives
Asia’s LNG demand: reality check
Shell’s 2026 Outlook leans harder than ever on stratospheric Asian demand to justify a new wave of LNG investment. But post-Hormuz, the data and policy responses all lean the other way.
Guest post
From Moscow to Mar-a-Lago
Europe’s energy dependency has a new address. The continent has made a Faustian bargain with US LNG it doesn’t need.
Chart Deck
The Hormuz Half-Life
Iran holds the valve, but it is worth less every time it turns... so Tehran is reaching for the gun.
Chart Deck
Priced for peace?
Markets have priced the US–Iran ceasefire as a fully-fledged peace deal. The 60-day clock, and our models, suggest otherwise.
Strait of Hormuz
INTERVIEW: The Iran deal is an unmitigated disaster for the US
“This is a historic capitulation that will define the structure of global power for the next hundred years.”
Deep Dives
Gas industry goes to war over EU storage rules
Eurogas wants EU-wide storage targets to expire in 2027. GIE wants them to continue. Gasunie wants a strategic reserve. Brussels warns that botched intervention is a cure worse than the disease. They cannot all be right.