The market that cried peace
Credulous energy markets have stopped pricing Iran, and started pricing Trump’s presidential word salads instead. This cannot end well.
Latest
The ceiling softens
The hard risk budget cap keeping TTF below €50 has lifted. What remains is softer, stranger and harder to trade: a market with room to rally, but no-one willing to push through.
EU review flags algo-trading risks
But intervention is unnecessary, says Commission’s Gas Market Task Force
Quantum transits
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
Spreads blow out
Atlantic LNG is heading east. EU storage refill is falling behind. And TTF keeps stalling below €50/MWh. This week’s Chart Deck explains why this apparent equilibrium is as soft as melting butter.
Countdown to the Commodities Crunch
🎧 The looming macroeconomic shock, ballooning winter risk for EU gas markets, demand destruction & post-Hormuz narrative whipsaw
The slow grind higher
The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.
The Hidden Ceiling
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
Crossing the Hormuz chasm
The fragile bridge back to molecular normality is fraying
The post-Hormuz cliff edge
Prolonged closure jacks up near-term volatility, and sets the stage for an abrupt reversal: macroeconomic shock + demand destruction + new LNG supply wave
The shock absorber cracks
For 55 days, the war-shocked global LNG market has been balanced by Asian state buyers going without. One just said, enough is enough.
Groundhog Strait
🎧 US-Iran ceasefire extended, Hormuz still closed to LNG. Could the Strait dominate the US midterms? We created three new LNG supply scenarios to find out.
Chart Deck
A market at war with itself
Does the mispricing thesis still hold water? Either the data is wrong, or the market is.
Data model
Update to the Hormuz LNG supply model
Quick re-opening, or prolonged disruption? Model how Middle East diplomacy and conflict impact fast-changing global LNG supply balances, in our improved scenario engine.
Deep Dives
War vs. Glut: The Great LNG Reckoning
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.
Hot take
America’s Suez moment
Trump’s hollow ‘victory’ is Iran’s greatest triumph — and a rupture with the old energy order
Deep Dives
Easter Escalation
Iran war spirals, Hormuz stays shut to LNG, and gas markets still aren’t paying attention
Chart Deck
Weaponising the fog of war
Markets can’t price what they can’t see. And right now, nobody can see anything.
The Energy Flux Podcast
Armageddon deferred?
🚨 EMERGENCY POD 🎧 Deciphering Trump's latest Iran TACO, and why the future of Middle East oil and LNG exports hinges on regime change in Tehran
Chart Deck
The Great Gas Risk Mispricing
Markets are failing to reflect compounding supply shortages and Iran conflict escalation risk
Hot take
Lies, damned AIs, and oil prices
Algorithmic execution has created the perfect insider-trading machine
The Energy Flux Podcast
The Middle East energy war is spiralling out of control
🚨 EMERGENCY POD 🎧 Deciphering the wide-ranging implications of unprecedented strikes on energy installations in Iran and Qatar, and the prospect of uncontrolled military escalation
Deep Dives
Israel takes energy warfare to the next level
Strike on Iran’s giant South Pars gas field goes beyond military escalation. This is a structural supply shock with cascading consequences for oil, condensate, LNG and power that energy markets have barely begun to price.
Hot take
The Price of Vassalage
How Europe’s response to the Hormuz crisis is blunting the very tools it needs to escape import dependency