Hot take
Panic and capitulation won’t save Europe
EU delays methane regulation and urges gas demand restraint, as Germany orders SEFE to fill storages. But humiliating climbdowns cannot protect Europe this winter
Seb Kennedy
Seb is a specialist energy journalist, market analyst, and founder of Energy Flux. Seb produces data-driven analysis of gas price formation, LNG trade dynamics, hedge fund positioning, and the intersection of decarbonisation and geopolitics.
Chart Deck
Deciphering the Hormuz narrative war
Washington says Iran has lost control of Hormuz. Iran says it struck tankers on its blacklist. More ships are moving, but on whose terms?
Chart Deck
Halfway to reality
TTF has swallowed more of the Hormuz closure risk. Beneath the latest peace sell-off, funds have banked profits and made room to buy again.
Deep Dives
America’s accidental heist of the global LNG business
GASTECH 2026 REFLECTIONS: War shifts US strategy from hard sell to soft power, while Qatar goes on the defensive
Gastech
Gastech 2026: LNG hype vs reality
And human vs robot dance-off
Chart Deck
Europe’s gold-plated energy crisis
Hedge funds cash in as winter scarcity fears ignite EU gas market
Deep Dives
The TTF options paradox, explained
How options work, how they appear in fund positioning, and what they add to Energy Flux’s risk models.
Deep Dives
Europe rolls the dice on winter gas
Our new interactive data model reveals how bad things could get in the EU gas market this winter, and what must go right to avoid disaster
Interactive 3D chart experiment
Bringing fresh perspective to the TTF Value-at-Risk analytical model
Chart Deck
Total eclipse of the market
European gas is trading in the fleeting umbra of an eerie calm. Eclipses always end — and this one ends in a searing winter burn
Chart Deck
Unintended consequences
Attempts to break the US-Iran stalemate are raising the risk of conflict sprawling sideways into dimensions the market has not yet priced
Chart Deck
TTF to the moon?
EU gas price surges past €60 per MWh. But is the top already in?