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Total eclipse of the market
European gas is trading in the fleeting umbra of an eerie calm. Eclipses always end — and this one ends in a searing winter burn
Seb Kennedy
Seb is a specialist energy journalist, market analyst, and founder of Energy Flux. Seb produces data-driven analysis of gas price formation, LNG trade dynamics, hedge fund positioning, and the intersection of decarbonisation and geopolitics.
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Unintended consequences
Attempts to break the US-Iran stalemate are raising the risk of conflict sprawling sideways into dimensions the market has not yet priced
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TTF to the moon?
EU gas price surges past €60 per MWh. But is the top already in?
Deep Dives
How the sun rewrote Pakistan’s LNG strategy
Europe’s 2022 gas grab taught Pakistan that long-term contracts do not guarantee molecules. Consumers answered blackouts and price spikes with 50 GW of unplanned solar. The result is an energy paradox: Pakistan is short of LNG today, but long on contracted supply to 2030.
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The Hormuz clown show gets serious
Diplomacy has taken the back seat in the clown car. Markets have stopped laughing and started buying
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Will the €50 ceiling hold?
“After four months of paralysis, the relief is palpable. It may also be misleading. And it is almost certainly temporary.” – Energy Flux, 26 June 2026 Well, that didn’t last long. Barely three weeks into a supposed two-month ceasefire, US missiles and Iranian drones are criss-crossing the Persian
Deep Dives
The Spread is Dead
Storage without a signal: the new political economy of Europe’s gas buffer
Deep Dives
Asia’s LNG demand: reality check
Shell’s 2026 Outlook leans harder than ever on stratospheric Asian demand to justify a new wave of LNG investment. But post-Hormuz, the data and policy responses all lean the other way.
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The Hormuz Half-Life
Iran holds the valve, but it is worth less every time it turns... so Tehran is reaching for the gun.
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Priced for peace?
Markets have priced the US–Iran ceasefire as a fully-fledged peace deal. The 60-day clock, and our models, suggest otherwise.
Strait of Hormuz
INTERVIEW: The Iran deal is an unmitigated disaster for the US
“This is a historic capitulation that will define the structure of global power for the next hundred years.”
Deep Dives
Gas industry goes to war over EU storage rules
Eurogas wants EU-wide storage targets to expire in 2027. GIE wants them to continue. Gasunie wants a strategic reserve. Brussels warns that botched intervention is a cure worse than the disease. They cannot all be right.