Deep Dives
The TTF options paradox, explained
How options work, how they appear in fund positioning, and what they add to Energy Flux’s risk models.
Seb Kennedy
Seb is a specialist energy journalist, market analyst, and founder of Energy Flux. Seb produces data-driven analysis of gas price formation, LNG trade dynamics, hedge fund positioning, and the intersection of decarbonisation and geopolitics.
Deep Dives
Europe rolls the dice on winter gas
Our new interactive data model reveals how bad things could get in the EU gas market this winter, and what must go right to avoid disaster
Interactive 3D chart experiment
Bringing fresh perspective to the TTF Value-at-Risk analytical model
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Total eclipse of the market
European gas is trading in the fleeting umbra of an eerie calm. Eclipses always end — and this one ends in a searing winter burn
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Unintended consequences
Attempts to break the US-Iran stalemate are raising the risk of conflict sprawling sideways into dimensions the market has not yet priced
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TTF to the moon?
EU gas price surges past €60 per MWh. But is the top already in?
Deep Dives
How the sun rewrote Pakistan’s LNG strategy
Europe’s 2022 gas grab taught Pakistan that long-term contracts do not guarantee molecules. Consumers answered blackouts and price spikes with 50 GW of unplanned solar. The result is an energy paradox: Pakistan is short of LNG today, but long on contracted supply to 2030.
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The Hormuz clown show gets serious
Diplomacy has taken the back seat in the clown car. Markets have stopped laughing and started buying
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Will the €50 ceiling hold?
“After four months of paralysis, the relief is palpable. It may also be misleading. And it is almost certainly temporary.” – Energy Flux, 26 June 2026 Well, that didn’t last long. Barely three weeks into a supposed two-month ceasefire, US missiles and Iranian drones are criss-crossing the Persian
Deep Dives
The Spread is Dead
Storage without a signal: the new political economy of Europe’s gas buffer
Deep Dives
Asia’s LNG demand: reality check
Shell’s 2026 Outlook leans harder than ever on stratospheric Asian demand to justify a new wave of LNG investment. But post-Hormuz, the data and policy responses all lean the other way.
Chart Deck
The Hormuz Half-Life
Iran holds the valve, but it is worth less every time it turns... so Tehran is reaching for the gun.