Moore’s law doesn’t apply to renewables

Positive feedback loops won’t propel wind and solar down the cost curve indefinitely, study warns

Spectacular cost reductions in wind and solar technologies over the last decade underpinned enthusiastic predictions of renewables devouring fossil fuel market share at an ever-accelerating pace through 2030 and beyond. But the factors required to achieve sustained cost reductions as expressed in Moore’s law do not all apply to energy technologies, according to new research, which warns inflationary headwinds could moderate power market disruption.

Photo by César Couto on Unsplash

Solar PV module costs have fallen precipitously since 2010 – by a factor of five, according to one estimate – and much quicker than mainstream forecasters dared predict.

This established a decade-long narrative of ever-cheaper solar power. A similar story unfolded in wind and battery storage technologies.

Extrapolating this narrative has led to wild predictions of renewable energy costs dropping almost indefinitely, revolutionising the energy sector and stranding trillions of dollars of fossil assets.

Wind and so…