“A successful [carbon border tax] would accelerate everything from the use of hydrogen across industry to cost [reductions] of renewable energy, so both the energy transition in terms of the move towards renewables and the industry side become more aligned. On the flip side, there is a risk of some kind of carbon trade war that provokes a bifurcation of global trade. That's clearly going to slow down the energy transition and industrial decarbonisation, and the risk in that scenario is that governments and policymakers have to almost stamp on the brakes in terms of their climate policies.”

There’s a lot riding on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the EU’s flagship proposal to export the EU carbon price and force its global trade partners to pay for the carbon embedded in their products. Carbon border taxes have dropped off the radar in recent months amid more urgent energy and security issues facing Europe and the world, but they are still coming – and will have wide-rangi…