Key topics: #Geopolitics #NetZero #BigPicture

An evergreen chronology of Energy Flux articles about net zero policies, their role in domestic and international affairs, and socio-economic considerations

Jan 1, 2021

Japan follows UK down the deregulation rabbit-hole

I once interviewed a Japanese economist in Tokyo about Japan’s energy market deregulation agenda. I asked him which country or market Japanese government officials looked to as an example of successful electricity and gas market liberalisation. Without hesitating, he said: “The UK…

a year ago · 3 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Scraping the barrel

Does the winter energy crunch mark the start of a much longer energy crisis? New studies into the oil industry’s diminishing energy returns (EROI) suggest we are slipping down a perilous energy cliff. If the models are to be believed, simply ‘producing more’ might not be possible, and would only make matters worse…

a year ago · 2 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

EU taxonomy descends into farce

The European Commission wants to include natural gas in the EU taxonomy for sustainable investment, but under impossibly stringent conditions that stand little chance of being met. This is shaping up to be a spectacular double own goal for Brussels that triggers energy ‘culture wars’ while delivering no discernible benefit to anybody…

a year ago · 3 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

How long will this energy crunch last?

“Energy prices will keep rising until you get a production response, at which point it will tend to be an over-reaction, or you will start seeing demand destruction, or a response from policymakers — or you could get all three. This is creating the conditions for the subsequent cyclical downturn…

a year ago · 3 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

There’s more than one comet

Don’t Look Up, the hilarious and sobering star-studded movie about two scientists trying in vain to warn humankind of a huge comet hurtling towards Earth, takes political satire into new territory: climate change. The asteroid is an obvious metaphor for runaway anthropogenic global warming, and the astronomers’ failure to convince the world to take deci…

a year ago · 4 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

The moral conundrum of carbon border taxes

On paper, a carbon border tax is the perfect mechanism for coercing trade partners to reduce their emissions and, potentially, delver a global deal on carbon pricing – the Holy Grail of COP26. In reality, world leaders are unlikely to agree on rules for a global carbon market, meaning border taxes will be introduced unilaterally. These will punish exporting countries that do not decarbonise their energy-intensive products, even if development finance promised to help them transition fails to materialise…

2 years ago · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

COP26 must close the rhetoric gap without creating a supply gap

BREAKOUT STORY: Electricity is not a globally traded commodity for a reason. But world leaders are now backing a project to change that: the Green Grids Initiative (6-minute read): IN THIS EMAIL: 💥COP26 must close the ‘rhetoric gap’ without creating a supply gap…

2 years ago · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Demand destruction stalks Europe

The unfolding global energy crisis has added urgency to the slow-burning debate on the role of reducing demand to achieve climate objectives. The trouble is, most people are looking through the wrong end of the telescope. When markets turn febrile, the first casualty is perspective…

2 years ago · 2 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

China declares energy bidding war

First up: The global energy crunch won’t stop the flow of capital into energy transition technologies. That’s the message from two cleantech finance gurus at twin investment houses Ardour Capital and New American Energy, in this month’s breakout interview…

2 years ago · 2 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Too much politics, not enough gas

European energy prices are going ballistic. Barely a day has gone by this month without wholesale gas and power prices breaking the previous day’s new all-time high. But what is really driving the bull run, what does it mean for decarbonisation, and how is this playing out in the political arena…

2 years ago · 2 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Net zero ain’t happening and CCS won’t save us

First up: Natural gas, the cleanest-burning fossil fuel, is again becoming unaffordable in many end-user markets. Better get used to it: there’s no easy fix to the perennial problem of gas price spikes and supercycles. And: Net zero won’t happen by 2050, carbon capture won’t decarbonise the fossil fuel industry, and hydrogen will play only a minor role i…

2 years ago · 2 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Afghanistan’s mineral bounty 💥 Big Oil’s chemical high

First up: Demand for petrochemicals helped pandemic-bludgeoned integrated oil companies repair their balance sheets in the second quarter. The outlook for petchems is bullish, and strategic investments are flowing according. And: The Taliban’s return to power in…

2 years ago · 2 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Is the EU tipping the scales against green fuel imports?

The EU is planning an unprecedented rollout of renewable power generation capacity this decade, which could exacerbate supply-demand grid imbalances. Mass deployment of electrolysers would flatten the peaks, so prioritising domestic production of ‘green’ hydrogen over imports would make strategic sense for Brussels — and that is exactly what the Commiss…

2 years ago · 3 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

US Republicans want to have their climate cake and eat it

US Republicans have launched a Congressional caucus in a bid to seize the initiative on energy and climate policy. The group’s clarion call for painless emission reductions speaks to genuine concerns about an expensive energy transition hurting rural working class families. But it also peddles the fantasy of easy climate fixes. It remains to be seen whe…

2 years ago · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Japan and Australia attack IEA's ‘net zero’ pathway

Australia and Japan are finding common cause on two incongruous issues: opposition to the International Energy Agency’s net zero roadmap, and exports of ‘green’ ammonia and hydrogen. This absurd situation highlights how both governments are clinging to the status quo even as private investors seek to build new industries around zero-emissions fuels…

2 years ago · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Colonial pipeline ransomware debacle holds lessons for the energy transition

Cyber threats are now a fact of life, and any company failing to prepare for them is failing in its fiduciary duties. The operator of the Colonial Pipeline and the US government both seem to have distracted from this point by deflecting attention onto DarkSide, the allegedly Russian state-backed cyber attacker that debilitated the critical fuel supply n…

2 years ago · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Japan and Australia attack IEA's ‘net zero’ pathway

2 years ago · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

EU taxonomy wrangling exposes uneven starting points in Europe's ‘net zero’ journey

The EU Commission has pulled off a spectacular fudge by updating its draft taxonomy on sustainable investment but delaying a decision on whether natural gas and nuclear will be deemed ‘sustainable’ investments. The friction underscores how far apart different member states are in their journey towards ‘net zero…

2 years ago · 2 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

National oil companies could be early winners on the road to ‘net zero’

Oil-rich nations face an historic opportunity to seize market share as the world strives to pivot away from crude. State-owned oil companies can either string out supply while rivals fall by the wayside, or race to get their resources to market before it’s too late. Either way, those sitting on the cheapest barrels face fewer risks to monetising their r…

2 years ago · 1 like · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

CCS captures more US taxpayer dollars as part of Biden’s green jobs drive

The marriage of convenience between the Biden administration and the carbon capture industry is blossoming into a genuine love affair. The White House is going out of its way to put CCS at the front of its plan to revitalise communities hurt by the energy transition – but the industry should expect state support to come with strings attached…

2 years ago · 2 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

IEA grapples with impossible trade-offs in landmark ‘net zero’ roadmap

The International Energy Agency has entered uncharted territory by releasing its first 1.5C Paris-aligned pathway. The Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario seeks to strike an impossible balance between political expediency, technological innovation and market realities. Its central call for no new fossil investment marks a significant departure from all pr…

2 years ago · 2 likes · 2 comments · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

‘Red’ hydrogen: Has Russia sparked a battle for H2 market share in Europe?

Good morning and thanks as ever for supporting Energy Flux. I’m humbled that you’re lending me your eyeballs! In today’s issue: ‘Red’ hydrogen: Has Russia sparked a battle for H2 market share in Europe? Nowhere to hide: Satellites take gas flaring battle into space…

2 years ago · 1 like · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Net zero effort: We need to talk about the urgent need for behavioural change

Energy investors are often told that solving the climate crisis must be balanced with the equally pressing need to lift people out of poverty. They are also banking on clean technologies to fix wasteful consumption habits. In the first of a two-part series…

2 years ago · 3 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Net zero impact? Climate summit pledges ‘barely move the carbon needle’

Since #EveryDayIsEarthDay, happy Earth Day! Today’s issue focusses on last week’s bombardment of climate pronouncements: Climate summit pledges ‘barely move the carbon needle’. But change is still coming for every part of the energy industry Pledges: The good, the bad and the ugly…

2 years ago · 1 like · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Brace yourself: The energy transition is happening ‘much faster than most realise’

Howdy. We finish the Energy Flux news week with a timely reminder that the speed of disruption in the energy space remains vastly underestimated. In today’s issue: Brace yourself: The energy transition is happening ‘much faster than most realise’ Is the energy transition turning Big Oil companies into ‘subsidy chasers…

2 years ago · 1 like · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

System change or climate change: Why Biden must abandon his bipartisan instincts

Since Joe Biden emerged as US president-elect, jubilant commentators on energy and climate matters have been falling over each other to highlight the many progressive climate measures that a Democratic administration could implement, even without control of the Senate. Tools at the president’s disposal include executive orders, appointing climate expert…

3 years ago · 6 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

The economic imperative: Recession and social injustice imperil the energy transition

When the economy booms, so do anthropogenic emissions of climate-warming gases. This year, the inverse happened. The pandemic plunged the global economy into its most severe contraction since the Great Depression. Energy-related emissions, which were on a hockey-stick trajectory…

3 years ago · 5 likes · 3 comments · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Policy miasma: Failure to crack down on methane emissions thwarts EU’s ‘clean hydrogen’ push

The European Commission has done more than probably any international body to advance the issue of climate neutrality on the world stage. Its European Green Deal has set in motion an ambitious policy package intended to set the 27-member bloc on a path towards ‘net zero’ climate emissions by 2050…

3 years ago · 4 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Backs to the wall: Oil exporting countries double down on fossil fuel subsidies

Fossil fuel-exporting countries are losing touch with their customers. As major import-reliant economies in Europe and Asia funnel large pots of Covid-19 stimulus funding into cleaner sources of energy, the suppliers that they still depend upon for natural gas, oil and coal are doubling down on fossil fuel subsidies—in the hope of keeping their flagship…

3 years ago · 3 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

The shape of change: Incipient megatrends point to multiverse of intertwined energy transitions

The energy transition has barely begun, and its ultimate destination is today unknowable. But several authoritative reports* released recently by the likes of BP, DNV GL and Morgan Stanley offer insights into the forces driving the overall direction of travel. Long-term forecasts and scenario modelling do not lend themselves to concrete conclusions—rath…

3 years ago · 4 likes · Seb Kennedy

Energy Flux

Moscow manoeuvres to neutralise threat from Europe’s latest hydrogen push

European policies on climate emissions and clean energy are reshaping the balance of power between the EU and one of its main external energy suppliers: Russia. Europe’s headlong rush to replace natural gas with clean hydrogen has prompted a strategic rethink at Gazprom, Russia’s state gas company that holds the monopoly over Russian pipeline gas exports…

3 years ago · 2 likes · Seb Kennedy