Poland’s false sense of energy security
Warsaw can cope without Russian gas, but for how long?
Poland barely blinked when Russia cut off gas flows, thanks to judicious energy planning by Warsaw. But new research suggests Poland risks sleepwalking into a gas supply deficit as ageing coal plants close.
Poland recently cancelled its ten-year gas supply agreement with Russia six months early, a month after Gazprom halted flows over Warsaw’s refusal to pay in rubles. Poland has been preparing for this moment for many years. The country’s energy balances are expected to remain healthy through next winter, thanks to timely gas storage restocking and gas supply diversification. Poland’s energy situation appears at first glance to be secure.
The country’s ability to walk away from Russian gas has been hailed as an example of the energy independence that eastern European countries can achieve by building new gas import infrastructure. Days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Polish deputy prime minister Jacek Sasin …