TTF Risk Model
Wrong at both ends
CHART DECK: The TTF curve is failing to price in both near-term bullish risks and more distant bearish realities
EU LNG Chart Deck
TTF Risk Model
Beware complacency
CHART DECK: Fundamentals are increasingly bearish, but the market remains prone to shocks
Chart Deck
Decorrelation!
TTF breaks from the script. Does this alter the winter outlook?
Chart Deck
When the dam breaks
CHART DECK: It never rains gas, but it pours LNG
Chart Deck
The boy who cried ‘bull’!
CHART DECK: Will anyone believe stern warnings of market tightness ever again?
Chart Deck
In search of signal
TTF Risk Model sheds light on opaque summer EU gas market | Chart Deck: 24 July 2025
Chart Deck
TTF Risk Model v2.0
New and improved modelling cuts through the noise to give a clearer view of shifts in risk pricing
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Geopolitical theatre
TTF bull trap turns investment funds into bag holders | EU LNG Chart Deck: 26 June 2025
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Whiplash!
TTF turns on a dime, but is risk being priced properly? | EU LNG Chart Deck: 20 June 2025
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Counterweight
TTF price upsurge must contend with demand flexibility and brimming global LNG supplies | EU LNG Chart Deck: 22 May 2025 Speculative investment funds are out on the prowl in the EU gas market again, buying up TTF gas futures like it’s 2021. This is no surprise, the pattern is
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Zombie bulls twitch back to life
Prompt EU gas price rebounds on Russian gas ban, but this ain’t no recovery | EU LNG Chart Deck: 10 May 2025
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Phase shift
Bearish market reality bites, accelerating the onset of a new pricing regime | EU LNG Chart Deck: 17 April 2025