Volatility is exploding. Fundamentals are not
Self-reinforcing volatility loop sustains sudden winter gas price rally, but for how long?
Latest
Short squeeze!
Hedge funds punish complacency in EU gas market. This is a sign of the times.
Venezuela’s Gas: The World’s Most Expensive Bonfire
As the world fixates on oil, Venezuela burns $1.4bn of gas — while sitting on an untouched methane empire that could redraw regional power
Europe’s grotesque LNG dilemma
2026 OUTLOOK: The Old Continent’s LNG habit could soon be funding two illegal military interventions on its immediate peripheries
Venezuela: what happens next?
Chaos looms after audacious decapitation of Maduro regime
Scarcity, abundance and urgency
How natural gas prices dictate the pace of energy transition
LNG glut claims first US scalp
PLUS: Tracking the glut, cheap gas and the energy transition, 2025 in review, Chart Deck + TTF Risk Model update
Tracking the LNG glut
New LNG physical balance index monitors glut conditions in real-time | Chart Deck — 19 Dec 2025
US LNG profits go negative
Spread compression intensifies, but TTF is primed to snap back | Chart Deck — 12 Dec 2025
The great Transatlantic gas crunch
Negative US LNG profits & record-low Henry Hub-TTF correlation signal extreme market dislocation — and looming rebalancing
Bears tighten grip on TTF
EU gas bear market spells trouble for LNG exporters | Chart Deck — 4 Dec 2025
Funds short TTF
Speculative capital prices in return of Russian gas to Europe, as global LNG glut deepens | Chart Deck — 27 Nov 2025
Chart Deck
Chart Deck — 21 Nov 2025
New downloadable slide deck in PDF and PPSX formats, for convenient offline viewing
Guest post
UK-Norway gas trade: Time for a New Deal?
If we want to avoid populist parties weaponising energy prices we need to think differently, starting with trade relationships between the UK and Norway.
Hot take
See no evil, hear no evil
From moral high ground to marked silence: the new US stance on Ukrainian corruption
Deep dive
US LNG eats itself
The American gas export boom risks becoming a victim of its own success. Can the waning shale sector pull off a production miracle?
Deep dive
‘Let’s get physical!’: Abaxx takes on JKM
Abaxx Exchange is betting that physical settlement can dethrone JKM as the global LNG price benchmark. The market isn’t so sure.
Chart Deck
Arb to nowhere
CHART DECK: Moribund European gas market resurrects narrow Asian LNG premium
Hot take
The Illusion of Power
🎧 VIDEO POD: Empty threats and new dependencies in a fragmented energy world
Deep dive
The invisible divide
REVEALED: How hedge funds secretly split Europe’s TTF gas market in two
TTF Risk Model
Wrong at both ends
CHART DECK: The TTF curve is failing to price in both near-term bullish risks and more distant bearish realities
Russian LNG
Arctic LNG 2: In from the cold?
DEEP DIVE: How China’s sanctions-busting imports and the EU’s Russian LNG ban complicate global trade flows
geopolitics
Moldova’s long road to energy independence
DEEP DIVE: Electoral victory for pro-EU government paves way for deeper integration with European energy markets
TTF Risk Model
Beware complacency
CHART DECK: Fundamentals are increasingly bearish, but the market remains prone to shocks