Arctic LNG 2: In from the cold?

Sanctioned cargoes of Russian LNG are flowing steadily into China from Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 project. The opening of the floodgates since the high-level Trump-Putin summit in Alaska in August has transfixed gas analysts and geopolitical observers alike.

The fate of Arctic LNG 2 is undeniably significant. But the media attention it has attracted is disproportionate to the volumes at stake.

Even in the most optimistic scenario for Novatek, the project is not expected to export more than 20 cargoes this year. More likely outturn is fewer than 15 cargoes between now and Christmas, according to experts and calculations by Energy Flux.

Still, every extra drop of LNG matters in a global market that is steadily plunging into a long, deep period of oversupply.

At the same time, the more that analysts bake Arctic LNG 2 exports into their base case modelling and winter gas outlooks, the more geopolitical risk is attached to those forecasts.

So, how exactly should we think about the Russian LNG wildcard lurking in the cautiously benign winter outlook?

This Deep Dive offers a realistic assessment of Arctic LNG volumes entering the market in 2025-26, with input from global real-time data and analytics company Kpler.

It also explores the sanctions- and war-related risks associated with Western policy responses to the partial revival of Russia’s stunted LNG flagship project.

💥 Article stats: 2,700 words, 15-min reading time, 10 charts, maps & graphs