Deep Dives
The Price of Vassalage
How Europe’s response to the Hormuz crisis is blunting the very tools it needs to escape import dependency
Seb Kennedy
Seb is a specialist energy journalist, market analyst, and founder of Energy Flux. Seb produces data-driven analysis of gas price formation, LNG trade dynamics, hedge fund positioning, and the intersection of decarbonisation and geopolitics.
The Energy Flux Podcast
The Pain Factor
🎧 Why markets anticipate a long Hormuz closure
Chart Deck
Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation
Gas and LNG prices surge, as the storage-speculation nexus lights up along the forward curve
Chart Deck
War in Iran convulses energy markets
Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.
Deep Dives
War profits, quantified
As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters and traders stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall
Hot takes
Iran: US Energy Dominance laid bare
Trump’s war of choice is a bonanza for US LNG exporters, and a catastrophe for everyone else
Chart Deck
The storage-speculation nexus: revisited
Our revamped Chart Deck reveals hedge funds are again positioned to capitalise on Europe’s daunting gas storage refilling challenge
Chart Deck
Dwindling EU gas stocks amplify Hormuz risk premium
Without a deep winter buffer, the European gas market is vulnerable to exaggerated price moves
Deep Dives
AI data centres: quantifying the gas burn
How much natural gas will America’s AI boom really need? Our new Constraint Model puts numbers to the narratives
Chart Deck
Cold shoulder
Too much LNG, not enough comfort
Chart Deck
The cost of volatility
Who pays when risk management itself becomes riskier and more expensive?
Deep Dives
Hormuz on the brink?
Gunboat diplomacy, commodity shocks, and the price of escalation