Energy markets are so damn fickle
And none more so than natural gas
Member discussion: Energy markets are so damn fickle
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The ceiling softens
The hard risk budget cap keeping TTF below €50 has lifted. What remains is softer, stranger and harder to trade: a market with room to rally, but no-one willing to push through.
EU review flags algo-trading risks
But intervention is unnecessary, says Commission’s Gas Market Task Force
Quantum transits
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
Spreads blow out
Atlantic LNG is heading east. EU storage refill is falling behind. And TTF keeps stalling below €50/MWh. This week’s Chart Deck explains why this apparent equilibrium is as soft as melting butter.