💥Energy Flux💥| Monday 7th June 2021
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Markets have priced the US–Iran ceasefire as a fully-fledged peace deal. The 60-day clock, and our models, suggest otherwise.
“This is a historic capitulation that will define the structure of global power for the next hundred years.”
Eurogas wants EU-wide storage targets to expire in 2027. GIE wants them to continue. Gasunie wants a strategic reserve. Brussels warns that botched intervention is a cure worse than the disease. They cannot all be right.
The US says the war is over and Hormuz is open. Energy markets are desperate to agree. Here’s what we know, what we don’t, and why the next two months will be more dangerous than headlines suggest.