Oil and gas investment is simultaneously way too high and dangerously low
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🎧 The looming macroeconomic shock, ballooning winter risk for EU gas markets, demand destruction & post-Hormuz narrative whipsaw
The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
The fragile bridge back to molecular normality is fraying