Deep Dives
The Hidden Ceiling
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
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The post-Hormuz cliff edge
Prolonged closure jacks up near-term volatility, and sets the stage for an abrupt reversal: macroeconomic shock + demand destruction + new LNG supply wave
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The Great Gas Risk Mispricing
Markets are failing to reflect compounding supply shortages and Iran conflict escalation risk
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Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation
Gas and LNG prices surge, as the storage-speculation nexus lights up along the forward curve
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War in Iran convulses energy markets
Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.
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Dwindling EU gas stocks amplify Hormuz risk premium
Without a deep winter buffer, the European gas market is vulnerable to exaggerated price moves
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The cost of volatility
Who pays when risk management itself becomes riskier and more expensive?
Hot take
Revenge of the machines
Natural gas markets implode in frenzy of automated selling and cascading long-stop orders
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After the squeeze
Algo traders take a breath after being taken to the cleaners
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Volatility is exploding. Fundamentals are not
Self-reinforcing volatility loop sustains sudden winter gas price rally, but for how long?
Hot take
Short squeeze!
Hedge funds punish complacency in EU gas market. This is a sign of the times.
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US LNG profits go negative
Spread compression intensifies, but TTF is primed to snap back | Chart Deck — 12 Dec 2025