Groundhog Strait
🎧 US-Iran ceasefire extended, Hormuz still closed to LNG. Could the Strait dominate the US midterms? We created three new LNG supply scenarios to find out.
After a short break, Victor Ponsford and I reconnected on the Energy Flux podcast.
We discussed the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the double blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and the deepening impacts on energy markets.
We also took some time to explore the Energy Flux Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which seeks to reconcile the loss of Middle East supply with new global LNG projects coming online over the next few years.
Victor created three illustrative scenarios about the potential timing for a re-opening of Hormuz, first with partial transits only and later at full pre-war levels. The dates are all anchored around milestones in the US political calendar, and I enjoyed the conversation about how Iran’s enduring grip on Hormuz could become an election issue both in the midterms and possibly even beyond.
We talked through the political and strategic considerations behind each eventuality, and decided to let listeners vote on their favourite scenario. In the next episode, we will share both the results of the poll and the outputs from the model for each scenario. The survey form is below. Here are the show links 👇
🎧 Listen/watch on YouTube:
🎧 Listen on Apple
🎧 Listen/watch on Spotify
On the next episode, we will share the results of the survey and reveal the modelling outcomes from each of these scenarios. Stay tuned!
🎓 YouTube tutorial
The scenarios are a bit of fun, but the modelling behind it is a seriously useful analytical tool. If you are curious to see what the Hormuz supply model looks like and exactly how it works, check out this comprehensive YouTube tutorial I published yesterday:
Subscribers on the Premium and Deep Dive tiers can access the model and start creating their own ‘Hormuz closure vs. LNG glut’ scenarios right away. Just click here and log in. Need access? 👇
📺 Live on air
Finally, I was live on air again yesterday to discuss these same issues. This short appearance on Al Jazeera News Hour was recorded prior to Donald Trump’s announcement to extend the ceasefire. His decision was unsurprising considering the alternatives (i.e. make major concessions to Iran to land a peace deal, or restart the bombing campaign).
Thanks for watching and listening. I’ll be back with this week’s Chart Deck on Friday.
–Seb
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