There’s no safe place to put all the gas. EU LNG chart deck (4-15 Sep 2023)
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The hard risk budget cap keeping TTF below €50 has lifted. What remains is softer, stranger and harder to trade: a market with room to rally, but no-one willing to push through.
But intervention is unnecessary, says Commission’s Gas Market Task Force
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
Atlantic LNG is heading east. EU storage refill is falling behind. And TTF keeps stalling below €50/MWh. This week’s Chart Deck explains why this apparent equilibrium is as soft as melting butter.