Chart Deck
Weaponising the fog of war
Markets can’t price what they can’t see. And right now, nobody can see anything.
Natural gas
Chart Deck
The Great Gas Risk Mispricing
Markets are failing to reflect compounding supply shortages and Iran conflict escalation risk
Deep Dives
Israel takes energy warfare to the next level
Strike on Iran’s giant South Pars gas field goes beyond military escalation. This is a structural supply shock with cascading consequences for oil, condensate, LNG and power that energy markets have barely begun to price.
Chart Deck
Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation
Gas and LNG prices surge, as the storage-speculation nexus lights up along the forward curve
Chart Deck
War in Iran convulses energy markets
Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.
Deep Dives
War profits, quantified
As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters and traders stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall
Hot take
Iran: US Energy Dominance laid bare
Trump’s war of choice is a bonanza for US LNG exporters, and a catastrophe for everyone else
Chart Deck
The storage-speculation nexus: revisited
Our revamped Chart Deck reveals hedge funds are again positioned to capitalise on Europe’s daunting gas storage refilling challenge
Chart Deck
Dwindling EU gas stocks amplify Hormuz risk premium
Without a deep winter buffer, the European gas market is vulnerable to exaggerated price moves
Chart Deck
Cold shoulder
Too much LNG, not enough comfort
Hot take
Revenge of the machines
Natural gas markets implode in frenzy of automated selling and cascading long-stop orders
Chart Deck
After the squeeze
Algo traders take a breath after being taken to the cleaners