Chart Deck
Priced for peace?
Markets have priced the US–Iran ceasefire as a fully-fledged peace deal. The 60-day clock, and our models, suggest otherwise.
Chart Deck
The ceiling softens
The hard risk budget cap keeping TTF below €50 has lifted. What remains is softer, stranger and harder to trade: a market with room to rally, but no-one willing to push through.
Breaking news
EU review flags algo-trading risks
But intervention is unnecessary, says Commission’s Gas Market Task Force
Deep Dives
Quantum transits
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
The Energy Flux Podcast
Countdown to the Commodities Crunch
🎧 The looming macroeconomic shock, ballooning winter risk for EU gas markets, demand destruction & post-Hormuz narrative whipsaw
Chart Deck
The slow grind higher
The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.
Deep Dives
The Hidden Ceiling
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
Chart Deck
The post-Hormuz cliff edge
Prolonged closure jacks up near-term volatility, and sets the stage for an abrupt reversal: macroeconomic shock + demand destruction + new LNG supply wave
Chart Deck
The Great Gas Risk Mispricing
Markets are failing to reflect compounding supply shortages and Iran conflict escalation risk
Chart Deck
Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation
Gas and LNG prices surge, as the storage-speculation nexus lights up along the forward curve
Chart Deck
War in Iran convulses energy markets
Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.
Chart Deck
Dwindling EU gas stocks amplify Hormuz risk premium
Without a deep winter buffer, the European gas market is vulnerable to exaggerated price moves