Chart Deck
This ain’t no bubble
Investment funds spent six weeks selling hard into a rally that lifted TTF to €80/MWh. The supply risk is real, and ENTSOG’s winter outlook quietly agrees
Chart Deck
Europe’s gold-plated energy crisis
Hedge funds cash in as winter scarcity fears ignite EU gas market
Chart Deck
Total eclipse of the market
European gas is trading in the fleeting umbra of an eerie calm. Eclipses always end — and this one ends in a searing winter burn
Chart Deck
Unintended consequences
Attempts to break the US-Iran stalemate are raising the risk of conflict sprawling sideways into dimensions the market has not yet priced
Chart Deck
TTF to the moon?
EU gas price surges past €60 per MWh. But is the top already in?
Chart Deck
Will the €50 ceiling hold?
“After four months of paralysis, the relief is palpable. It may also be misleading. And it is almost certainly temporary.” – Energy Flux, 26 June 2026 Well, that didn’t last long. Barely three weeks into a supposed two-month ceasefire, US missiles and Iranian drones are criss-crossing the Persian
Chart Deck
Priced for peace?
Markets have priced the US–Iran ceasefire as a fully-fledged peace deal. The 60-day clock, and our models, suggest otherwise.
Chart Deck
The ceiling softens
The hard risk budget cap keeping TTF below €50 has lifted. What remains is softer, stranger and harder to trade: a market with room to rally, but no-one willing to push through.
Breaking news
EU review flags algo-trading risks
But intervention is unnecessary, says Commission’s Gas Market Task Force
Deep Dives
Quantum transits
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
The Energy Flux Podcast
Countdown to the Commodities Crunch
🎧 The looming macroeconomic shock, ballooning winter risk for EU gas markets, demand destruction & post-Hormuz narrative whipsaw
Chart Deck
The slow grind higher
The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.