Deep Dives
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.
Hot take
Trump’s hollow ‘victory’ is Iran’s greatest triumph — and a rupture with the old energy order
Deep Dives
Iran war spirals, Hormuz stays shut to LNG, and gas markets still aren’t paying attention
Chart Deck
Markets are failing to reflect compounding supply shortages and Iran conflict escalation risk
The Energy Flux Podcast
🚨 EMERGENCY POD 🎧 Deciphering the wide-ranging implications of unprecedented strikes on energy installations in Iran and Qatar, and the prospect of uncontrolled military escalation
Deep Dives
Strike on Iran’s giant South Pars gas field goes beyond military escalation. This is a structural supply shock with cascading consequences for oil, condensate, LNG and power that energy markets have barely begun to price.
Hot take
How Europe’s response to the Hormuz crisis is blunting the very tools it needs to escape import dependency
The Energy Flux Podcast
🎧 Why markets anticipate a long Hormuz closure
Deep Dives
Iran, the Gulf, and the crisis of regional order
Chart Deck
Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.
Deep Dives
As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters and traders stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall
Hot take
Trump’s war of choice is a bonanza for US LNG exporters, and a catastrophe for everyone else