Chart Deck
A market at war with itself
Does the mispricing thesis still hold water? Either the data is wrong, or the market is.
Latest
Data model
Update to the Hormuz LNG supply model
Quick re-opening, or prolonged disruption? Model how Middle East diplomacy and conflict impact fast-changing global LNG supply balances, in our improved scenario engine.
Deep Dives
War vs. Glut: The Great LNG Reckoning
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.
Hot takes
America’s Suez moment
Trump’s hollow ‘victory’ is Iran’s greatest triumph — and a rupture with the old energy order
Deep Dives
Easter Escalation
Iran war spirals, Hormuz stays shut to LNG, and gas markets still aren’t paying attention
Chart Deck
Weaponising the fog of war
Markets can’t price what they can’t see. And right now, nobody can see anything.
The Energy Flux Podcast
Armageddon deferred?
🚨 EMERGENCY POD 🎧 Deciphering Trump's latest Iran TACO, and why the future of Middle East oil and LNG exports hinges on regime change in Tehran
Chart Deck
The Great Gas Risk Mispricing
Markets are failing to reflect compounding supply shortages and Iran conflict escalation risk
Hot takes
Lies, damned AIs, and oil prices
Algorithmic execution has created the perfect insider-trading machine
The Energy Flux Podcast
The Middle East energy war is spiralling out of control
🚨 EMERGENCY POD 🎧 Deciphering the wide-ranging implications of unprecedented strikes on energy installations in Iran and Qatar, and the prospect of uncontrolled military escalation
Deep Dives
Israel takes energy warfare to the next level
Strike on Iran’s giant South Pars gas field goes beyond military escalation. This is a structural supply shock with cascading consequences for oil, condensate, LNG and power that energy markets have barely begun to price.
Deep Dives
The Price of Vassalage
How Europe’s response to the Hormuz crisis is blunting the very tools it needs to escape import dependency