Guest post
From Moscow to Mar-a-Lago
Europe’s energy dependency has a new address. The continent has made a Faustian bargain with US LNG it doesn’t need.
Chart Deck
The Hormuz Half-Life
Iran holds the valve, but it is worth less every time it turns... so Tehran is reaching for the gun.
Strait of Hormuz
INTERVIEW: The Iran deal is an unmitigated disaster for the US
“This is a historic capitulation that will define the structure of global power for the next hundred years.”
Hot takes
The Fog of Peace
The US says the war is over and Hormuz is open. Energy markets are desperate to agree. Here’s what we know, what we don’t, and why the next two months will be more dangerous than headlines suggest.
The Energy Flux Podcast
Countdown to the Commodities Crunch
🎧 The looming macroeconomic shock, ballooning winter risk for EU gas markets, demand destruction & post-Hormuz narrative whipsaw
Chart Deck
The slow grind higher
The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.
Deep Dives
The Hidden Ceiling
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
Guest post
Crossing the Hormuz chasm
The fragile bridge back to molecular normality is fraying
Chart Deck
The post-Hormuz cliff edge
Prolonged closure jacks up near-term volatility, and sets the stage for an abrupt reversal: macroeconomic shock + demand destruction + new LNG supply wave
Chart Deck
The shock absorber cracks
For 55 days, the war-shocked global LNG market has been balanced by Asian state buyers going without. One just said, enough is enough.
The Energy Flux Podcast
Groundhog Strait
🎧 US-Iran ceasefire extended, Hormuz still closed to LNG. Could the Strait dominate the US midterms? We created three new LNG supply scenarios to find out.
Chart Deck
A market at war with itself
Does the mispricing thesis still hold water? Either the data is wrong, or the market is.