Chart Deck
The Hormuz Half-Life
Iran holds the valve, but it is worth less every time it turns... so Tehran is reaching for the gun.
Chart Deck
Priced for peace?
Markets have priced the US–Iran ceasefire as a fully-fledged peace deal. The 60-day clock, and our models, suggest otherwise.
Deep Dives
Quantum transits
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
Guest post
Crossing the Hormuz chasm
The fragile bridge back to molecular normality is fraying
Chart Deck
The shock absorber cracks
For 55 days, the war-shocked global LNG market has been balanced by Asian state buyers going without. One just said, enough is enough.
The Energy Flux Podcast
Groundhog Strait
🎧 US-Iran ceasefire extended, Hormuz still closed to LNG. Could the Strait dominate the US midterms? We created three new LNG supply scenarios to find out.
Data model
Update to the Hormuz LNG supply model
Quick re-opening, or prolonged disruption? Model how Middle East diplomacy and conflict impact fast-changing global LNG supply balances, in our improved scenario engine.
Deep Dives
Easter Escalation
Iran war spirals, Hormuz stays shut to LNG, and gas markets still aren’t paying attention
Chart Deck
Weaponising the fog of war
Markets can’t price what they can’t see. And right now, nobody can see anything.
The Energy Flux Podcast
Armageddon deferred?
🚨 EMERGENCY POD 🎧 Deciphering Trump's latest Iran TACO, and why the future of Middle East oil and LNG exports hinges on regime change in Tehran
Hot takes
The Price of Vassalage
How Europe’s response to the Hormuz crisis is blunting the very tools it needs to escape import dependency
The Energy Flux Podcast
The Pain Factor
🎧 Why markets anticipate a long Hormuz closure