Chart Deck
“After four months of paralysis, the relief is palpable. It may also be misleading. And it is almost certainly temporary.” – Energy Flux, 26 June 2026 Well, that didn’t last long. Barely three weeks into a supposed two-month ceasefire, US missiles and Iranian drones are criss-crossing the Persian
Chart Deck
Iran holds the valve, but it is worth less every time it turns... so Tehran is reaching for the gun.
Strait of Hormuz
“This is a historic capitulation that will define the structure of global power for the next hundred years.”
Deep Dives
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
Chart Deck
Atlantic LNG is heading east. EU storage refill is falling behind. And TTF keeps stalling below €50/MWh. This week’s Chart Deck explains why this apparent equilibrium is as soft as melting butter.
The Energy Flux Podcast
🎧 The looming macroeconomic shock, ballooning winter risk for EU gas markets, demand destruction & post-Hormuz narrative whipsaw
Chart Deck
The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.
Guest post
The fragile bridge back to molecular normality is fraying
Chart Deck
Prolonged closure jacks up near-term volatility, and sets the stage for an abrupt reversal: macroeconomic shock + demand destruction + new LNG supply wave
Chart Deck
For 55 days, the war-shocked global LNG market has been balanced by Asian state buyers going without. One just said, enough is enough.
The Energy Flux Podcast
🎧 US-Iran ceasefire extended, Hormuz still closed to LNG. Could the Strait dominate the US midterms? We created three new LNG supply scenarios to find out.
Chart Deck
Does the mispricing thesis still hold water? Either the data is wrong, or the market is.