Chart Deck
The slow grind higher
The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.
Chart Deck
The post-Hormuz cliff edge
Prolonged closure jacks up near-term volatility, and sets the stage for an abrupt reversal: macroeconomic shock + demand destruction + new LNG supply wave
Chart Deck
The shock absorber cracks
For 55 days, the war-shocked global LNG market has been balanced by Asian state buyers going without. One just said, enough is enough.
Chart Deck
A market at war with itself
Does the mispricing thesis still hold water? Either the data is wrong, or the market is.
Chart Deck
Weaponising the fog of war
Markets can’t price what they can’t see. And right now, nobody can see anything.
Chart Deck
The Great Gas Risk Mispricing
Markets are failing to reflect compounding supply shortages and Iran conflict escalation risk
Chart Deck
Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation
Gas and LNG prices surge, as the storage-speculation nexus lights up along the forward curve
Chart Deck
War in Iran convulses energy markets
Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.
Chart Deck
The storage-speculation nexus: revisited
Our revamped Chart Deck reveals hedge funds are again positioned to capitalise on Europe’s daunting gas storage refilling challenge
Chart Deck
Dwindling EU gas stocks amplify Hormuz risk premium
Without a deep winter buffer, the European gas market is vulnerable to exaggerated price moves
Chart Deck
Cold shoulder
Too much LNG, not enough comfort
Chart Deck
The cost of volatility
Who pays when risk management itself becomes riskier and more expensive?