Deep Dives
America’s accidental heist of the global LNG business
GASTECH 2026 REFLECTIONS: War shifts US strategy from hard sell to soft power, while Qatar goes on the defensive
Deep Dives
One-off analytical models, long-form research and off-diary investigations into under-reported themes across gas, LNG and the broader energy transition. Deep Dives go beyond the weekly news cycle to interrogate the structural forces shaping markets — from geopolitical supply chain risk and policy architecture to emerging trade patterns and energy security dynamics. Available to subscribers on the Deep Dives and Premium subscription tiers. Latest issues below 👇
Deep Dives
The TTF options paradox, explained
How options work, how they appear in fund positioning, and what they add to Energy Flux’s risk models.
Deep Dives
Europe rolls the dice on winter gas
Our new interactive data model reveals how bad things could get in the EU gas market this winter, and what must go right to avoid disaster
Deep Dives
How the sun rewrote Pakistan’s LNG strategy
Europe’s 2022 gas grab taught Pakistan that long-term contracts do not guarantee molecules. Consumers answered blackouts and price spikes with 50 GW of unplanned solar. The result is an energy paradox: Pakistan is short of LNG today, but long on contracted supply to 2030.
Deep Dives
The Spread is Dead
Storage without a signal: the new political economy of Europe’s gas buffer
Deep Dives
Asia’s LNG demand: reality check
Shell’s 2026 Outlook leans harder than ever on stratospheric Asian demand to justify a new wave of LNG investment. But post-Hormuz, the data and policy responses all lean the other way.
Deep Dives
Gas industry goes to war over EU storage rules
Eurogas wants EU-wide storage targets to expire in 2027. GIE wants them to continue. Gasunie wants a strategic reserve. Brussels warns that botched intervention is a cure worse than the disease. They cannot all be right.
Deep Dives
Quantum transits
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
Deep Dives
The Hidden Ceiling
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
Strait of Hormuz
Update to the Hormuz LNG supply model
Quick re-opening, or prolonged disruption? Model how Middle East diplomacy and conflict impact fast-changing global LNG supply balances, in our improved scenario engine.
Deep Dives
War vs. Glut: The Great LNG Reckoning
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.
Deep Dives
Easter Escalation
Iran war spirals, Hormuz stays shut to LNG, and gas markets still aren’t paying attention